Chitkara University Publications

Probability Models For Explaining Migration Process From Eastern Uttar Pradesh, India


This paper aims to examine the pattern of male out-migration and explains the distribution of households according to number of male migrants aged fifteen and above. The suitability of proposed model is tested with primary data collected from remote and semi-urban areas of Varanasi, 2012. Findings highlight that the average number of clusters from the remote households is higher and the average number of individuals per clusters is lower in comparison to the semi-urban villages. The average number of migrants per household has increased with increasing size of households in the remote as well as in semi-urban villages. The average number of migrants per household is higher among upper caste followed by middle caste, Muslims and scheduled caste from the study area. Average number of migrants per household has increased over six times in the low economic status of the households. In the medium and high economic status of the households, average number of migrants per household is found to be around three and two times more respectively, over the last three decades. The increasing average number of migrants per household portray that an increasing propensity of adult male migration from the study area. Over 2.7 times increase in the average number of migrants per household may be primarily due to increasing man-land ratio in the absence of relative growth in employment opportunities. Thus, the existing imbalances in demand and supply of gainful employment opportunities in the region may be the key to continuously increasing the number of migrants per households from the region.


  • S. K. Singh, Department of Mathematical Demography and Statistics, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
  • Raj Narayan, Department of Statistics and Demography, NIHFW, New Delhi-110067



Migrants, household, poison distribution, geometric distribution, remote, semi-urban


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